[Seminaire CREM] Are natural disasters political events for municipalities?
Présentation de Somina Paty, GATE CNRS - Université Lyon 2 Lumière
Thursday 25 September 2025, 12:15Passed
Abstract:
This paper provides new evidence on the role of political alignment in natural disaster relief and its reward by voters at the municipal level. To analyze how political alignment between state and municipalities may influence the disaster declaration and the probability for citizens to get insurance compensations after a natural disaster, we exploit an original data set on natural disasters and French municipalities between 2008 and 2020. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) strategy, we find that the political alignment between the local incumbent and the state significantly increases the probability to obtain a natural disaster declaration from state. To check whether citizens reward the incumbents who obtained a disaster declaration and therefore insurance compensation, we apply a Heckman model based strategy to avoid selection bias. Although a natural disaster reduces the probability for the incumbents to be reelected, this negative effect is lower when the disaster declaration was decided by state.
Co-écrit avec Carla Morvan
